Article

The Math of Reopening: Looking into Ohio’s COVID-19 Testing and Mortality Numbers

Community Solutions Team
Transforming data into progress
Additional Contributors
No items found.
April 30, 2020
Read time:
Download Fact Sheets
Register now
Share this resource
Subscribe to our Newsletter
By subscribing you agree to with our Privacy Policy.
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Download this as a PDF

The United States now leads the world in deaths related to COVID-19, representing one-third of all global daily deaths. While this figure is tragic, many states, including Ohio, aggressively implemented physical distancing policies to contain the spread of the virus and flatten the curve. Now, with Ohio poised to roll-back some of those public health measures, questions remain as to how we quantify and understand the impact of COVID-19, especially as Ohio’s cases, hospitalizations and number of deaths continue to rise. It is therefore paramount that data in Ohio gives decisionmakers and the public the ability to understand the prevalence of the virus, and its impact, in our state.

 The level of testing needed to re-open requires a minimum of 152 tests per 100,000 people.

According to research from the Harvard Global Health Institute, the level of testing needed to re-open requires a minimum of 152 tests per 100,000 people. As of April 15, Ohio was more than 100 tests short, coming in at 22 tests per 100,000 people. To explain it in scale, Ohio, with a population of 11.7 million, would need about 17,767 tests per day to accommodate that recommendation. On April 27, the Governor announced a new testing capacity plan, indicating Ohio should be able to accommodate 18,200 tests per day by May 13. And while testing will help better refine our understanding of transmission in Ohio, it may not accurately demonstrate the harm it has already caused.  

In addition to deaths that are directly attributable to COVID-19, there is “excess mortality,” or the number of deaths which occur above what’s expected in a given timeframe. An April 29 article in The New York Times looked at these numbers globally, and found that when they combined the historical average number of deaths with the number of deaths due to COVID-19, 40,000 additional people died over the last month than expected. That 40,000 number is about 20 percent of the total global mortality currently attributed to COVID-19. The estimates for the United States were based on a combination of reports from the local and national levels, most notably the from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Vital Statistics System. While the Times’ report did not include Ohio, the CDC numbers did have Ohio’s data, and the results of our analysis are interesting.  

Below compares the annual average mortality in Ohio during the first 14 weeks of the year (first week of April) between 2014 and 2019 alongside data from 2020. When comparing “all causes” of mortality, there doesn’t seem to be much variance:  

In looking at additional potential conditions not qualified as “all causes,” many of the trends demonstrate the same continuance of a trend, except for one category, “symptoms, signs and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not elsewhere classified.” This category can include fever, headache, fatigue and other, more diffuse symptoms. The data is as follows:  

When looking at the total number of deaths in this category, we see a three-fold increase in mortality relative to expected average.

 It’s important to realize that this data may not represent Ohio’s excess mortality.

It’s important to realize that this data may not represent Ohio’s excess mortality and, indeed, there may be multiple reasons why we are seeing the data reported this way. On the one hand, the classification of the causes, given the relative lack of clinical experience with COVID-19, may indicate symptoms tied to COVID-19 are not being qualified as COVID-19 related. Additionally, there may be data lags between Ohio and the CDC that do not occur in other states. Regardless of the reason, it will be important Ohio review its current epidemiological data collection processes to provide a better picture of the true impact on Ohio. Especially as the state contemplates reopening, knowing exactly how flat the curve is will be a clear indicator of what strategies are working and which may do more harm than good.

Download Fact Sheets

Ohio Statewide Data

Download

Wood County

Download

Wyandot County

Download

Williams County

Download

Washington County

Download

Vinton County

Download

Wayne County

Download

Warren County

Download

Van Wert County

Download

Union County

Download

Tuscarawas County

Download

Stark County

Download

Summit County

Download

Trumbull County

Download

Shelby County

Download

Seneca County

Download

Scioto County

Download

Ross County

Download

Sandusky County

Download

Richland County

Download

Putnam County

Download

Huron County

Download

Portage County

Download

Preble County

Download

Pike County

Download

Pickaway County

Download

Perry County

Download

Noble County

Download

Paulding County

Download

Ottawa County

Download

Morrow County

Download

Muskingum County

Download

Morgan County

Download

Montgomery County

Download

Meigs County

Download

Monroe County

Download

Miami County

Download

Mercer County

Download

Marion County

Download

Madison County

Download

Medina County

Download

Mahoning County

Download

Lucas County

Download

Lorain County

Download

Logan County

Download

Licking County

Download

Lawrence County

Download

Lake County

Download

Holmes County

Download

Jackson County

Download

Knox County

Download

Jefferson County

Download

Hocking County

Download

Henry County

Download

Highland County

Download

Harrison County

Download

Hancock County

Download

Hardin County

Download

Greene County

Download

Geauga County

Download

Guernsey County

Download

Hamilton County

Download

Gallia County

Download

Fayette County

Download

Fulton County

Download

Franklin County

Download

Fairfield County

Download

Erie County

Download

Darke County

Download

Defiance County

Download

Coshocton County

Download

Delaware County

Download

Cuyahoga County

Download

Crawford County

Download

Columbiana County

Download

Clinton County

Download

Clermont County

Download

Clark County

Download

Champaign County

Download

Carroll County

Download

Athens County

Download

Ashtabula County

Download

Brown County

Download

Butler County

Download

Belmont County

Download

Auglaize County

Download

Ashland County

Download

Allen County

Download

Adams County

Download

Lake County

Download

Geauga County

Download

Cuyahoga County

Download

All Municipalities Geauga County

Download

All Municipalities Lake County

Download

All Municipalities Cuyahoga County

Download

Thompson

Download

South Russell

Download

Russell

Download

Parkman

Download
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Download report

Subscribe to our newsletter

5 Things you need to know arrives on Mondays with the latest articles, events, and advocacy developments in Ohio

Explore the fact sheets

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique.

No Related Fact Sheets

Explore Topics

Browse articles, research, and testimony.